Steve Wozniak, Steve Jobs, and the long road to the iPad. – By Tim Wu – Slate Magazine.

I have long contended that computers have the same trajectory as automobiles. Initially the domain of cutting-edge enthusiasts, moving through eras of: mass-production (Model-T v. IBM PC), large-differentiation (trucks/cars v. laptops/desktops), into customization (hot-rods v. case-mods). Eventually, the car market evolved into what we have today, a highly commoditized market were owners are are unlikely to tinker with the vehicle and depend on specialists to maintain and repair their car. Rather than increase the performance of their car through tuning, adjustment, or upgrades, consumers choose to just purchase new cars. The same is probably now true of computer users as well. It has been common industry knowledge that a segment of the population only upgrades operating system by purchasing a new computer.

As a thoughtful and long-time computer user, I applaud the design and functionality that modern Apple products represent. As a long time computer enthusiast, I bemoan the increasing commoditization of computing. As a computer science researcher and educator, I worry over the fact that our students seem to be increasingly the former rather than the latter.

To really understand my point, have a look at the galleries for each device. The iPad’s is here, and the Courier can be seen here. See any differences?

If you sat through Apple’s little slideshow of iPad images, most of the uses they show for the iPad are consumption of media: surfing the web, reading books, looking at pictures, listening to music, etc. Microsoft on the other hand, thinks that the Courier is a tool for creation. The demo movie uses show a designer using the Courier to schedule appointments, create to-do lists, and keep a design journal. That makes it better, more powerful, right? Wrong!

The iPad is a focussed device — it’s trying to do one job, and do it as well as it can. The iPad is a single view (a window if you will) into your virtual life. You peer through it’s large glass pane into the world of data you’ve amassed. But if you’re going to create or manipulate that world, you have a better tool — it’s called a computer. The iPad is an accessory for the computer you already have and use, not a replacement. Apple even distinguishes the iPad by giving it a different method of accessing that world; unlike your computer, you merely reach out and touch the iPad directly. No keyboard, no mouse. For some people that might be enough to make a computer unnecessary — the way for some people a TV is more important than a video camera.

The Courier on the other hand is trying to do everything a desktop or laptop computer would. Its interactions are a mess: sometimes one uses your fingers, sometimes a stylus. Watch the movie again, the user is switching back and forth so frequently they leave the stylus in the image even when showing touch interactions. And because hand writing recognition is so much more reliable than typing that seems to be the primary input method on this new device.

But the epic fail, the sine qua non of the Courier has to be the hinged dual screen. I’m not sure who thought this up, but they need to get out more. Imagine using the Courier they way it’s depicted. You know, you’re sitting on your couch with the device propped up against your knee (to support both screens), trying to balance seeing both screens with using a pen on either, all while trying to contend with the hinge. Or you’re standing in line at Starbucks, Courier draped across one arm (to support both screens), trying to flick stuff from one screen to the next while holding your bag and stylus in the other hand. No, the Courier really only makes sense in one context: sitting at a table with a flat surface to support it. Which is pretty much where most people would favor a real computer. Don’t believe me? Try this experiment — grab a plain, old-fashioned paper notebook, and try writing in it while not at a table. Look at where you put your hands, and how you need to shift it around to write on various parts to two adjacent pages, especially on the side you write from. Leave me a comment and let me know how it went.

The iPad is far from perfect. I wish the screen were 12 inches, and that it handled video conferencing (I’m sure future versions will). But it gets enough right that I think there will be future versions. But the real genius of Apple here (at least as exhibited by the iPhone) is that their customers actually buy software. Up until recently, I think most people bought a computer and used bundled/free/pirated software. Sure some games sold well, but otherwise the majority of the world didn’t pay for software. With the App Store, Apple has found a way to encourage the average consumer to actually look at and pay for some software that makes the device better for their own uses. Sure, free apps are very popular; and games represent the highest grossing software category on the iPhone, but the market has opened up for other software and that’s huge. The support of developers will probably do more to make or break the iPad than anything else.

With the Courier Microsoft is asking developers to write new software for a new untested paradigm. And Microsoft themselves have a spotty record of supporting developers enough to grow market share on new devices. Pen Windows, Windows Mobile, Plays for Sure — Microsoft has a history of moving forward with new initiatives, and abandoning the old. leaving developers and users behind. Since upgrading embedded Microsoft OS devices is seldom supported, developers are left to support multiple (incompatible) devices/codebases or face irate customers. With markets where Microsoft sells the hardware things are somewhat better. Xbox and Zune users get OS updates occasionally, but that still doesn’t mean developers have flocked to those platforms. Downloaded any good Zune apps lately? On your first generation Zune?

Let me know your take. In five years will we be talking about the latest iPad, Courier, or something completely different?

For gosh sake, someone add a thermocouple and read-out so I know exactly what temperature the oven is at, and have some idea how soon it’ll be preheated. While we’re at it, how about an independent temperature probe and readout to stick into my roast so I don’t open the oven just to check if it’s done.

On second thought, someone get me a patent lawyer.